{"id":19749,"date":"2022-05-18T18:38:26","date_gmt":"2022-05-18T10:38:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/?post_type=market_trends&p=19749"},"modified":"2022-05-19T15:37:56","modified_gmt":"2022-05-19T07:37:56","slug":"eurusd-breaks-out-from-falling-wedge-but-is-not-out-of-the-woods-yet","status":"publish","type":"market_trends","link":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/market_trends\/eurusd-breaks-out-from-falling-wedge-but-is-not-out-of-the-woods-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u4ece\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6954\u5f62\u4e2d\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4f46\u5c1a\u672a\u8d70\u51fa\u56f0\u5883"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Since the start of 2022, the EURUSD currency pair has depreciated around 7.5% due to the strong US Dollar, which also strengthened against many other currencies. Last Thursday on 12 May 2022, the pair dipped to a lowest point since January 2017, at 1.0350, before rebounding to hover around 1.0500. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback\u2019s strength against a basket of rival currencies, remains near the highest levels since January 2017, around 103.7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Safe haven status sends the US Dollar on a strong uptrend<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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The strength of the US Dollar is due to several factors, with market risk sentiments playing a significant role. Amid the ongoing uncertainty around the war in Ukraine, and lockdowns in China, the US Dollar benefitted from its safe haven status. In a risk-off (risk averse) market, there is a tendency for funds to rotate from riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, into safer assets like the US Dollar denominated bonds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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With the heightened demand for the safe haven currency, the value of the US Dollar increased in relative to other currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Hawkish ECB provides support for the Euro<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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The recent rebound in the EURUSD pair may be an effect of the increasingly hawkish expectations on the European Central Bank\u2019s (ECB) monetary policy decision in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The euro zone inflation which soared to a record high of 7.5% last month, which is well above the ECB\u2019s target of just 2%, has led policymakers advocating a rapid unwinding of stimuli, with some members asking for a rate hike as soon as July. One of the more hawkish ECB members, the Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, raised the prospect of a half percentage point interest rate increase in July, if inflation continues to climb, marking the first time such an aggressive shift has been discussed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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\u4ece\u65e5\u7ebf\u56fe\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u5df2\u7a81\u7834\u4e0b\u964d\u6954\u5f62\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u9884\u793a\u7740\u770b\u6da8\u8d8b\u52bf\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4e0e\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5f31\u6307\u6570 (RSI) \u4e0a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u80cc\u79bb\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4ef7\u683c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\uff0c\u800c RSI \u8bfb\u6570\u5219\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u655b\u6563\u5ea6 (MACD) \u6307\u6807\u5904\u4e8e\u770b\u8dcc\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u76f4\u65b9\u56fe\u4f4e\u4e8e\u96f6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u76f4\u65b9\u56fe\u5728\u4fe1\u53f7\u7ebf\u4e0a\u65b9\u5fae\u5347\uff0c\u770b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Despite the short-term rebound, EURUSD on the weekly chart remains largely in a downtrend. Several resistance levels the pair has to break above to validate further upsides are 1.0636 (R1), and 1.0808 (R2) in extension. If EURUSD finds support above these levels, traders could anticipate a price target at 1.1016 (R3). In the alternate scenario where the rally is not sustained, S1 at 1.0379 is an important support level to hold to validate the bullish trend reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u672c\u5468\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Wednesday, May 18<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR – HICP (MoM)(Apr), HICP-X F,E,A,T (MoM)(YoY)(Apr)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD – Building Permits (MoM)(Apr), Housing Starts (MoM)(Apr)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thursday, May 19<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, ECB’s De Guindos speech<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD – Initial Jobless Claims (May 13), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(May), ECB’s De Guindos speech<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friday, May 20<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR – ECB’s Lane speech, Consumer Confidence (May)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u5728 Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5) \u4e0a\u4ea4\u6613\u5916\u6c47\u3002<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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\u5728\u52a8\u6001\u5e73\u53f0 Phillip MetaTrader 5 \u4e0a\u4ee5\u96f6\u4f63\u91d1\u4ea4\u6613\u5916\u6c47\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f4e\u70b9\u5dee\u7684tform\u3002\u4e0e\u96c6\u6210 Acuity \u4fe1\u53f7\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a> \u548c \u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6307\u6807<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u79fb\u52a8\u548c\u684c\u9762\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u60a8\u5c06\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9519\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528 Phillip MT5 \u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a\u3002

\u4e0b\u8f7d<\/a> \u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u5fc3 \u5e02\u573a\u55e1\u55e1\u58f0<\/a> \u6709\u5173\u66f4\u591a\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u3002

\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff1f Mac OS \u73b0\u5df2\u652f\u6301 Phillip MT5\uff01\u8981\u5b89\u88c5\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u4e0b\u8f7d\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u5e76\u5b8c\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5b89\u88c5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n