{"id":38467,"date":"2025-02-06T19:01:20","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T11:01:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/?post_type=market_trends&#038;p=38467"},"modified":"2025-02-07T09:11:19","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T01:11:19","slug":"dax-in-the-election-cycle","status":"publish","type":"market_trends","link":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/market_trends\/dax-in-the-election-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"DAX in the Election Cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\r\n\r\n<\/p>\r\n<p>Pre-elections analysis courtesy of Eurex<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>With Germany heading to the polls on <strong>Sunday, 23 February 2025<\/strong>, all eyes are on how the DAX Futures might react. Will market volatility create new trading opportunities? <span class=\"html-span xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x1hl2dhg x16tdsg8 x1vvkbs x3nfvp2 x1j61x8r x1fcty0u xdj266r xat24cr xgzva0m xhhsvwb xxymvpz xlup9mm x1kky2od\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"xz74otr\" src=\"https:\/\/static.xx.fbcdn.net\/images\/emoji.php\/v9\/t1\/1\/16\/1f4c8.png\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcc8\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" \/><\/span><span class=\"html-span xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x1hl2dhg x16tdsg8 x1vvkbs x3nfvp2 x1j61x8r x1fcty0u xdj266r xat24cr xgzva0m xhhsvwb xxymvpz xlup9mm x1kky2od\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"xz74otr\" src=\"https:\/\/static.xx.fbcdn.net\/images\/emoji.php\/v9\/t3c\/1\/16\/1f4a1.png\" alt=\"\ud83d\udca1\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" \/>Read on to learn more!<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>European and US benchmark index futures and their <\/strong><strong>sensitivity to political news<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38470\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"887\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-1.png 887w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-1-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-1-768x485.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-1-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 887px) 100vw, 887px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>European and US benchmark index futures are highly correlated, moving in the same direction in regular times.<\/li>\r\n<li>We also see that US presidential election caused more volatility to DAX than internal news on parliamentary coalition break-up in Germany<\/li>\r\n<li>This can be explained by the structure of DAX companies that generate only 18% of the sales inside Germany\u00a0<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38482\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"544\" height=\"518\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-2.png 544w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-2-300x286.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-2-13x12.png 13w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 544px) 100vw, 544px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>DAX as a global export powerhouse<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>As stated in Deutsche Bank report1 published in 2023, DAX companies mostly generate sales outside Germany and show higher correlation to<br \/>global GDP (0.41) than to Germany\u2019s GDP (0.33)<\/li>\r\n<li>As Germany GDP stagnated (-0.2%) in Q4 2024, DAX continues to rally as index is more exposed to the political discussion around tariffs than to the national election cycle<\/li>\r\n<li>DAX is floating at 21,770 as of January 31, showing 8% Ytd growth (vs ~3% in S&amp;P500). The DAX&#8217;s current valuation of around 16 times earnings presents an attractive alternative to the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s multiple of 25<\/li>\r\n<li>This valuation gap provides potential opportunities for investors seeking exposure to global growth at more reasonable prices<\/li>\r\n<li>The lower technology weighting has proven beneficial during recent AI related market volatility<\/li>\r\n<li>These factors make the DAX an interesting proposition for those looking to diversify their index trading exposure and could serve as a catalyst for rotation from US equity dominance in global asset allocation observed last years<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38483\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1284\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-3.png 1284w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-3-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-3-1024x339.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-3-768x254.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-3-18x6.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1284px) 100vw, 1284px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Volatility derivatives: VSTOXX\u00ae vs. VIX\u00ae<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>VSTOXX\u00ae\/VIX\u00ae spread has historically been mean-reverting, but relationship can break down during times of Euro or US specific events.<br \/>Between 2016 and 2024, the spread has averaged 1.66 points (VSTOXX\u00ae over the VIX). Given that VSTOXX \u00ae gauges volatility of EURO STOXX 50 and EURO STOXX 50 consists only 28% of companies based in Germany, clients might want to opt for DAX \u00ae derivatives family as a hedge for political events in Germany.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38484\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"847\" height=\"496\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-4.png 847w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-4-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-4-768x450.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-4-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Volatility surface for DAX options<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>Given that parliamentary elections are planned for Feb 23, we observe the typical volatility smile for DAX Options expiring on Feb 21 (red line) and on Feb 28 expiry (white line). Worth to note that 28 Feb at-the-money and in-the-money options have higher IV than options expiring before the elections.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38478\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"841\" height=\"443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-5.png 841w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-5-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-5-768x405.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-5-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Term structure for DAX options<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>On the graph to the left we have term structures screened one week before US presidential elections (red line) and 3 weeks before Germany parliamentary elections (white line). We can see a hump clustered around front month contracts (dailies and weeklies) for both curves, although back in November the IV was higher across all terms.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38479\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"393\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-6.png 835w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-6-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-6-768x361.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-6-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Open interest distribution for DAX options 21 Feb expiry<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>21 Feb expiry represents 12.84% of total open interest in DAX options. The most bullish position is 3,860 call options placed at 22,800 strike<\/li>\r\n<li>Put\/call ratio is at 1.96<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38480\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"841\" height=\"416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-7.png 841w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-7-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-7-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/DAX-7-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Open interest distribution for DAX options 21 Feb expiry<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>21 Feb expiry represents 12.84% of total open interest in DAX options. The most bullish position is 3,860 call options placed at 22,800 strike<\/li>\r\n<li>Put\/call ratio is at 1.96<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Take a view on the Micro DAX and the Micro EURO STOXX 50 Now!<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/promotion\/trade-micro-dax-and-micro-euro-stoxx-50-futures-at-eur1-50\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Trade-the-DAX-Euro-STOXX-50-at-just-EUR1.50-1024x289.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"289\" \/><\/a><br \/>\u4ee5 1.50 \u6b27\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4ea4\u6613 Micro-DAX\u00ae \u548c Micro-EURO STOXX 50\u00ae \u671f\u8d27*\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u66f4\u591a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/promotion\/trade-micro-dax-and-micro-euro-stoxx-50-futures-at-eur1-50\/\">\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u6237\u3002<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals, and Stocks\u00a0on NOVA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Features of trading on NOVA<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8bbf\u95ee 20 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u6240 <\/strong><br>\u4ece 20 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684 200 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u671f\u8d27\u4e2d\u6355\u6349\u673a\u4f1a<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a<\/strong><br>Over 11,000 Stocks and ETFs across Singapore, US, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan markets.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Charting Powered by TradingView<\/strong><br>View live charts and gain access to over 100 technical indicators<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>True Multi-Asset Trading<\/strong><br>Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals and Stocks on a single ledger on NOVA<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USD Shares Margin Rate at Only 4.5% p.a<\/strong><br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fractional Shares from US$1<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div style=\"height:65px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/demo.phillipnova.com.sg\/?utm_content=PFSG&amp;culture=zh-CN\" style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fffffa;background-color:#fba64d\">Free NOVA Demo Account<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/open-an-account\/\" style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fba64d\">\u5feb\u901f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u5f00\u6237<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pre-elections analysis courtesy of Eurex &nbsp; With Germany heading to the polls on Sunday, 23 February 2025, all eyes are on how the DAX Futures might react. Will market volatility create new trading opportunities? Read on to learn more! &nbsp; European and US benchmark index futures and their sensitivity to political news European and US [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":38469,"template":"","class_list":["post-38467","market_trends","type-market_trends","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>DAX in the Election Cycle - Phillip Nova - Bringing global markets closer to you<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Read our latest Market Trends article to learn where prices of the DAX and Euro STOXX 50 Futures are headed. 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