{"id":40011,"date":"2025-04-23T11:10:55","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T03:10:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/?post_type=market_trends&#038;p=40011"},"modified":"2025-04-23T11:51:09","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T03:51:09","slug":"ge2025-special-will-singapores-big-three-banks-rally-or-retreat-before-the-polls","status":"publish","type":"market_trends","link":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/market_trends\/ge2025-special-will-singapores-big-three-banks-rally-or-retreat-before-the-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"GE2025 Special: Will Singapore\u2019s Big Three Banks Rally or Retreat Before the Polls?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\r\n\r\n<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p>Singapore markets will be closed on polling day, Saturday, 3 May 2025. This allows investors the weekend to digest election results ahead of the market reopening on Monday, potentially reducing volatility from knee-jerk reactions.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>Crucially, bank stocks tend to respond not just to the Singapore election outcome, but also to:<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>Global macro risk (impacts credit card spend, loan growth, etc)<\/li>\r\n<li>Interest rate trajectory (impacts Net Interest Margins (NIMs) and loan appetite)<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>Based on our historical analysis of the price action of Singapore\u2019s big 3 local banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC) in the build-up and aftermath of the past 4 elections (2006, 2011, 2015, 2020), we observe the following:<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-40018\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1211\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-1.png 1211w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-1-300x58.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-1-1024x197.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-1-768x148.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-1-18x3.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1211px) 100vw, 1211px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Takeaways for 2006:<\/strong> Massive pre-election surge on higher rates, rally reversed post-elections as investors anticipated Fed pause amid profit taking activity.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-40014\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1211\" height=\"232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-2.png 1211w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-2-300x57.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-2-1024x196.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-2-768x147.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-2-18x3.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1211px) 100vw, 1211px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Takeaways for 2011:<\/strong> Broad selloff before the vote, followed by a sharp post-election bounce with the best 1M returns. Rates were near zero but strong GDP momentum and macro recovery drove gains.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-40015\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1211\" height=\"231\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-3.png 1211w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-3-300x57.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-3-1024x195.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-3-768x146.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-3-18x3.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1211px) 100vw, 1211px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Takeaways for 2015:<\/strong> Deep selloff one month before elections driven by China-led volatility and cautious loan guidance. Hawkish Fed expectations gave banks a short-term lift, but a weak macro backdrop limited overall upside.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-40016\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1209\" height=\"230\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-4.png 1209w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-4-300x57.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-4-1024x195.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-4-768x146.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-4-18x3.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1209px) 100vw, 1209px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Takeaways for 2020:<\/strong> Modest pre-election bounce, followed by a broad selloff as near-zero US rates compressed margins and macro weakness from COVID weighed on sentiment.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<h3><strong>What do we see so far in 2025?<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-40017\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1212\" height=\"160\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-5.png 1212w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-5-300x40.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-5-1024x135.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-5-768x101.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ge2025-5-18x2.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1212px) 100vw, 1212px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p>Bank performance around Singapore\u2019s elections appears to be driven less by politics and more by the Fed\u2019s interest rate trajectory and macro risk.<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>A relief rally 1 week prior to the election is common (3 out of 4), we attribute this to a short-term bounce on renewed election clarity<\/li>\r\n<li>1-month prior to the elections, banks\u2019 performance was weak if macro is shaky (2015, 2011) but strong if in a rate hike cycle (2006)<\/li>\r\n<li>1-week post-election, performance was typically flat or weak unless macro was improving (2011 was the outlier)<\/li>\r\n<li>1-month post-elections, performance was mixed but sustained upside only occurred in 2011 due to GDP rebound<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<h3><strong>Outlook for Post-Election<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<p>We expect <strong>a short-term bounce<\/strong> post-election, driven by political clarity and positioning relief.<br \/>However, <strong>medium- to long-term headwinds remain.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently eased its monetary policy amid global trade risks.<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>The slope of the S$NEER was reduced, while its width and centre was maintained<\/li>\r\n<li>The 2025 GDP forecast was cut to 0%-2% from 1%-3%, citing US tariffs and trade risks<\/li>\r\n<li>The MAS and MTI both warned of &#8220;downside risks&#8221; from market volatility and trade outlook<\/li>\r\n<li>MAS cut its core inflation forecast to 0.5%-1.5%, down from 1%-2%<\/li>\r\n<li>Q1 GDP Growth Rate was +3.8%, below consensus of 4.3% and prior reading of 5.0%<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>The current policy mix \u2014 a <strong>dovish MAS stance combined with deteriorating global conditions (GDP downgrades, rising trade risks)<\/strong> \u2014 is likely to exert pressure on bank margins, weigh on loan demand, and drag on earnings in the coming quarters.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<h3><strong>Potential Catalysts ahead:<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>DBS reports on 8 May<\/li>\r\n<li>UOB on 7 May<\/li>\r\n<li>OCBC on 9 May<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>These earnings announcements may offer <strong>near-term trading catalysts<\/strong>, but <strong>sustained outperformance likely depends on macro surprises to the upside \u2014 which remains elusive.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>Nevertheless, similar to US peers, <strong>SG banks could still outperform consensus expectations through stronger non-interest income (NOII)<\/strong> \u2014 especially from <strong>trading and treasury divisions<\/strong>, which tend to benefit from increased <strong>market volatility<\/strong>. This segment may help cushion the impact of narrowing NIMs in the quarters ahead.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"2413\" data-end=\"2433\"><strong data-start=\"2417\" data-end=\"2433\">\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2435\" data-end=\"2578\">Markets respond to clarity \u2014 and GE2025 could offer plenty. Stay nimble and tuned in as the Singapore index could move in anticipation of post-election policies.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p data-start=\"2435\" data-end=\"2578\">\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<h3 class=\"font-size-18\"><strong data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2631\">Trade the Volatility with Phillip Nova 2.0<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<p class=\"font-size-18\">Take advantage of election-driven market opportunities in Singapore, <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/promotion\/trade-sgx-asian-index-futures-from-as-low-as-0-98\/?utm_source=Social&amp;utm_medium=Post&amp;utm_campaign=SGXIndices-GE&amp;utm_content=PFSG\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"2814\" data-end=\"3038\">trade the SGX MSCI Singapore Index Futures (SGP) at S$1.38*<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"font-size-18\">Or take a view on the Singapore market via Singapore stocks and the STI ETFs on the Phillip Nova 2.0. <a href=\"https:\/\/accountopening.phillipnova.com.sg\/?aeCode=y766YjygsSD043GAiMwWcuPPLUfZof&amp;source=GE2025\">Click here to open an account now<\/a>!<\/p>\r\n<p data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2809\">\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals, and Stocks\u00a0on NOVA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Features of trading on NOVA<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8bbf\u95ee 20 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u6240 <\/strong><br>\u4ece 20 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684 200 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u671f\u8d27\u4e2d\u6355\u6349\u673a\u4f1a<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a<\/strong><br>Over 11,000 Stocks and ETFs across Singapore, US, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan markets.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Charting Powered by TradingView<\/strong><br>View live charts and gain access to over 100 technical indicators<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>True Multi-Asset Trading<\/strong><br>Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals and Stocks on a single ledger on NOVA<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USD Shares Margin Rate at Only 4.5% p.a<\/strong><br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fractional Shares from US$1<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div style=\"height:65px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/demo.phillipnova.com.sg\/?utm_content=PFSG&amp;culture=zh-CN\" style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fffffa;background-color:#fba64d\">Free NOVA Demo Account<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/open-an-account\/\" style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fba64d\">\u5feb\u901f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u5f00\u6237<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u6307\u6570\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":40022,"template":"","class_list":["post-40011","market_trends","type-market_trends","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>GE2025 Special: Will Singapore\u2019s Big Three Banks Rally or Retreat Before the Polls? 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