{"id":43655,"date":"2025-11-12T16:20:56","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T08:20:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/?post_type=market_trends&#038;p=43655"},"modified":"2025-11-12T17:08:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T09:08:30","slug":"will-singapore-banks-continue-to-shine-in-a-rate-cut-environment","status":"publish","type":"market_trends","link":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/market_trends\/will-singapore-banks-continue-to-shine-in-a-rate-cut-environment\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Singapore Banks Continue to Shine in a Rate Cut Environment?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"43655\" class=\"elementor elementor-43655\" data-elementor-post-type=\"market_trends\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"ob-is-breaking-bad elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-352641be elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"352641be\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_bbad_use_it&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_bbad_sssic_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_glider_is_slider&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2bc8ee01\" data-id=\"2bc8ee01\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_bbad_is_stalker&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_teleporter_use&quot;:false,&quot;_ob_column_hoveranimator&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_column_has_pseudo&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-13bf2830 ob-harakiri-inherit ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"13bf2830\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_use_harakiri&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_harakiri_writing_mode&quot;:&quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;_ob_postman_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_perspektive_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_poopart_use&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_shadough_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_allow_hoveranimator&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_widget_stalker_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>(Data accurate as of 10 Nov 2025)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As of 10 Nov Close, in terms of Total Return: <strong>DBS (+30.05% YTD), OCBC (+15.65% YTD), UOB (-1.16% YTD).<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>DBS has outperformed peers YTD.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>3 banks all reported Net Interest Margin (NIM) compression, guided for more if Fed cuts again.<\/li>\n<li>\u8fd9 <strong>3M SORA <\/strong>is currently at 1.26%, down from 3% at the end of 2024. This is <strong>equivalent to seven 25bps rate cuts by the Fed.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-43661 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1031\" height=\"391\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-1.png 1031w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-1-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-1-1024x388.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-1-768x291.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-1-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1031px) 100vw, 1031px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Banks with lower non-interest income growth and lower payouts underperformed.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-43660\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1090\" height=\"422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-2.png 1090w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-2-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-2-1024x396.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-2-768x297.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-2-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1090px) 100vw, 1090px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-43659\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1403\" height=\"586\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-3.png 1403w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-3-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-3-1024x428.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-3-768x321.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-3-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1403px) 100vw, 1403px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Earnings Summary<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u661f\u5c55\u94f6\u884c<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>DBS posted higher-than-expected profits, supported by sustained momentum in its wealth management business due to strong money flows from the wealthy; and robust trading income due to strong equity markets.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-43658\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1043\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-4.png 1043w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-4-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-4-1024x388.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-4-768x291.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-4-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1043px) 100vw, 1043px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Net Income down 2.4% to S$2.95b, but above S$2.79b est<\/li>\n<li>Interim DPS S$0.60<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net interest income S$3.56b, -6.3% YoY, missed S$3.62 est<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-interest income S$2.35b, beat est S$2.18b<\/strong>, mainly driven by increased income from commission and fees<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net fee and commission income S$1.36b, +22% YoY, above est S$1.20b, <\/strong>mainly driven by wealth management<\/li>\n<li><strong>Wealth management fees S$796m, +31% YoY, above est S$690.4m<\/strong><br \/><strong>Markets trading income S$439m, +33% YoY<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>NIM 1.96%, matching est of 1.96%<\/li>\n<li>DBS forecasts 2026 Net profit and Net interest income to be &#8220;slightly&#8221; below 2025 levels.<\/li>\n<li>Forecasts mid-teens growth in wealth mgt in 2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5927\u534e\u94f6\u884c<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>UOB missed 3Q profit estimates as the lender set aside S$615m to guard against commercial real estate headwinds in the US and Greater China.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Net income<\/strong> of S$443m, well below est S$1.35b<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net interest income<\/strong> S$2.27b, match est S$2.27, down by 8%\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-interest income<\/strong> at S$1.1b, down from S$1.4b on higher card rewards expenses + lower trading and investment income<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net fee income<\/strong> S$615m, below est S$674.3m and down by -2.4% YoY<\/li>\n<li>NIM of 1.82%, down from 2.05% in 3Q24 and below est of 1.84%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Additional S$615m set aside in pre-emptive General allowance, General Allowance Coverage at 1% of Performing Loans.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>UOB forecasted low single-digit loan growth in 2026, FY26 NIM of 1.75%-1.80%, but &#8220;high single to double digit&#8221; fee growth in 2026<\/li>\n<li>No change in dividend policy, final dividend payment for 2025 will not be impacted by the general allowance set aside<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u534e\u4fa8\u94f6\u884c<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Joining DBS in benefitting from strong money flows from the wealthy,<strong> \u534e\u4fa8\u94f6\u884c<\/strong> beat estimates as strong wealth management fees helped offset a decline in interest income.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Net Income<\/strong> S$1.98b vs est S$1.78b<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net interest income <\/strong>S$2.22b vs est S$2.27b <strong>[missed est by -1.98%]<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>NIM <\/strong>1.84% vs est 1.88%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-interest Income <\/strong>S$1.57b vs est S$1.31b, <strong>[beat est by +19.35%]<\/strong> driven by:<\/li>\n<li><strong>Wealth management <\/strong>S$376m vs est S$278.4m <strong>[beat est by 35%]<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Trading income<\/strong> S$683m vs est S$434.1m <strong>[beat est by 57%]<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Analyst View<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Singapore loan growth<\/strong> has continued to rise (Sep25: +6.8%) as interest rates come down. This is broadly beneficial for banks.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>CASA ratio to total deposits<\/strong> rose across the 3 major banks, a tailwind for the banks as it indicates lower funding costs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-43657\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1087\" height=\"416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-5.png 1087w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-5-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-5-1024x392.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-5-768x294.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/SG-Banks-5-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1087px) 100vw, 1087px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>NEUTRAL <\/strong>on SG banks as a continued decline in the 3M SORA should result in continued NIM compression, affecting both Net Interest Income (NII) and overall earnings.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>Furthermore, <strong>lower FD rates<\/strong> should help lower funding costs and ease NIM compression.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>Lower interest rates is also resulting in an <strong>increase in the the volume of lending (loan growth).\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>We expect the increase in loan volume and fee income (e.g., from wealth management) to mitigate the impact on overall profitability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u00a0<\/h3>\n<h3><strong>Trade SG Stocks and ETFs with Phillip Nova<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"font-size-18\"><a href=\"https:\/\/accountopening.phillipnova.com.sg\/?aeCode=6XMUlTbER79lVtwyHFiM9DaaIp2NDm&amp;source=StocksPosts&amp;utm_source=Market%20Trends&amp;utm_medium=Article&amp;utm_campaign=Stocks%20-%20SG&amp;utm_content=PFSG\"><img 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style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fffffa;background-color:#fba64d\">Free NOVA Demo Account<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--2\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/open-an-account\/\" style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fba64d\">\u5feb\u901f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u5f00\u6237<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Singapore Market 3Q Overview: Where Are The Potential Gems?<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":43672,"template":"","class_list":["post-43655","market_trends","type-market_trends","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - 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