{"id":43720,"date":"2025-11-19T12:29:59","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T04:29:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/?post_type=market_trends&#038;p=43720"},"modified":"2025-11-19T13:21:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T05:21:11","slug":"ai-boom-or-bubble-what-history-tells-us","status":"publish","type":"market_trends","link":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/market_trends\/ai-boom-or-bubble-what-history-tells-us\/","title":{"rendered":"AI Boom or Bubble? What History Tells Us"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"43720\" class=\"elementor elementor-43720\" data-elementor-post-type=\"market_trends\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"ob-is-breaking-bad elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7b54cd3f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7b54cd3f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_bbad_use_it&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_bbad_sssic_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_glider_is_slider&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4c0d3224\" data-id=\"4c0d3224\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_bbad_is_stalker&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_teleporter_use&quot;:false,&quot;_ob_column_hoveranimator&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_column_has_pseudo&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7259275f ob-harakiri-inherit ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7259275f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_use_harakiri&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_harakiri_writing_mode&quot;:&quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;_ob_postman_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_perspektive_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_poopart_use&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_shadough_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_allow_hoveranimator&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_widget_stalker_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Phillip Nova\u9ad8\u7ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6797\u77e5\u9716\u5148\u751f<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8220;This is different in the sense that these companies, the companies that are so highly valued, actually have earnings and stuff like that&#8221;\u00a0&#8211; Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>AI Bubble?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4ece <strong>Big Tech earnings,<\/strong> 2026 CAPEX is expected to be substantially higher than 25\u2019.<\/li>\n<li>OpenAI committed to spending around $1.4T on AI infrastructure, despite <strong>remaining unprofitable.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Bottlenecks: Electricity, Time for data centre build, GPUs becoming obsolete.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Key question is whether there is enough future demand from end-users for companies like OpenAI to justify the huge investments being pumped into the industry (ROI?)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>Circular financing\/Vendor financing risks.<\/h3>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-43722 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"749\" height=\"675\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-1.png 749w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-1-300x270.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-1-13x12.png 13w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The industry has seen a rise in circular financing&#8211; essentially referring to where Nvidia invests money into OpenAI for OpenAI to purchase their chips.<\/li>\n<li>The market is concerned about this as circular\/vendor financing was prevalent leading up to the Dot-com bubble, with companies like Nortel Networks even offering up their shares as financing for customers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Opinion: <\/strong>From Nvidia&#8217;s perspective, this move makes sense business-wise as they are essentially investing into the ecosystem. OpenAI&#8217;s success will result in Nvidia&#8217;s success. They are essentially incubating a future customer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>Comparison with Dot-Com Bubble<\/h3>\n<p>As we saw in the Dot-com bubble, markets can still crash even if technology turns out beneficial like the internet.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However there are <strong>key distinctions between back then and now:<br \/><\/strong><br \/>1. Strong financials backing valuations, <strong>spending backed mostly by cash,<\/strong> not like debt-heavy Telco providers<br \/><br \/>2. Different backdrops\u2013 <strong>Fraud<\/strong> accelerated bubble bursting, with companies like Worldcom found to be cooking their books; also we saw <strong>rising rates<\/strong> heading into 00s.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-43723 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"831\" height=\"675\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-2.png 831w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-2-300x244.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-2-768x624.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-2-15x12.png 15w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 831px) 100vw, 831px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>After the dot-com bubble, there was an <strong>overcapacity in Telcos, <\/strong>which resulted in <strong>lower connectivity charges which made high-speed internet access affordable for everyone. We could see the same this time round.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The ultimate winners were companies which came up with the best business model to monetize the internet, including Ebay&#8217;s auction system, Amazon&#8217;s e-commerce, airline booking platforms, and Google&#8217;s search engine and advertising.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>Opportunities: TOP PERFORMERS IN PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX (SOX)<\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-43724\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"512\" height=\"443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-3.png 512w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-3-300x260.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AI-Bubble-3-14x12.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-size-18\"><strong data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2631\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/AAH_StocksPosts_OAOV2\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-41193 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/24116-AI1200X628-1024x536.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"419\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/24116-AI1200X628-1024x536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/24116-AI1200X628-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/24116-AI1200X628-768x402.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/24116-AI1200X628-18x9.jpg 18w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/24116-AI1200X628.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"font-size-18\"><strong>Trade AI related and other US stocks on Phillip Nova 2.0 now!<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/AAH_StocksPosts_OAOV2\">Click here to open an account now!<\/a><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2809\">\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals, and Stocks\u00a0on NOVA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Features of trading on NOVA<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8bbf\u95ee 20 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u6240 <\/strong><br>\u4ece 20 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684 200 \u591a\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u671f\u8d27\u4e2d\u6355\u6349\u673a\u4f1a<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a<\/strong><br>Over 11,000 Stocks and ETFs across Singapore, US, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan markets.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Charting Powered by TradingView<\/strong><br>View live charts and gain access to over 100 technical indicators<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>True Multi-Asset Trading<\/strong><br>Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals and Stocks on a single ledger on NOVA<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USD Shares Margin Rate at Only 4.5% p.a<\/strong><br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fractional Shares from US$1<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div style=\"height:65px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/demo.phillipnova.com.sg\/?utm_content=PFSG&amp;culture=zh-CN\" style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fffffa;background-color:#fba64d\">Free NOVA Demo Account<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--2\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/open-an-account\/\" style=\"border-radius:4px;color:#fba64d\">\u5feb\u901f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u5f00\u6237<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nvidia\u2019s Strategic Double Moat: How It Stays Ahead in AI<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":43735,"template":"","class_list":["post-43720","market_trends","type-market_trends","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>AI Boom or Bubble? 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