{"id":43952,"date":"2025-11-26T14:46:56","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T06:46:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/?post_type=market_trends&#038;p=43952"},"modified":"2025-11-26T16:25:58","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T08:25:58","slug":"cocoa-futures-slide-to-1-75-year-lows-as-supply-outlook-improves","status":"publish","type":"market_trends","link":"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/cn\/market_trends\/cocoa-futures-slide-to-1-75-year-lows-as-supply-outlook-improves\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Futures Slide to 1.75-Year Lows as Supply Outlook Improves"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"43952\" class=\"elementor elementor-43952\" data-elementor-post-type=\"market_trends\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"ob-is-breaking-bad elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-36f0cd8e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"36f0cd8e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_bbad_use_it&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_bbad_sssic_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_glider_is_slider&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7dd093c\" data-id=\"7dd093c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_bbad_is_stalker&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_teleporter_use&quot;:false,&quot;_ob_column_hoveranimator&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_column_has_pseudo&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3be50af elementor-widget__width-initial ob-harakiri-inherit ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3be50af\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ob_use_harakiri&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_harakiri_writing_mode&quot;:&quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;_ob_postman_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_perspektive_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_poopart_use&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;_ob_shadough_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_allow_hoveranimator&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;_ob_widget_stalker_use&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-43955\" src=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ICE-Cocoaa-26-Nov-2025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1670\" height=\"848\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ICE-Cocoaa-26-Nov-2025.png 1670w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ICE-Cocoaa-26-Nov-2025-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ICE-Cocoaa-26-Nov-2025-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ICE-Cocoaa-26-Nov-2025-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ICE-Cocoaa-26-Nov-2025-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.phillipnova.com.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ICE-Cocoaa-26-Nov-2025-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1670px) 100vw, 1670px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Cocoa futures continued their steep two-week decline on Tuesday, with March ICE New York cocoa falling 1.75% and London cocoa contracts down 1.38%. Prices London cocoa have now slipped to their lowest levels in nearly 18 months, pressured by a combination of improving crop expectations, easing regulatory risks, and weak global demand.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>EU Set to Delay Deforestation Rules, Loosening Supply Constraints<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A key catalyst behind the latest selloff is growing confidence that the European Union will postpone its Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by one year. The measure &#8211;\u00a0 aimed at curbing imports tied to deforestation in countries such as Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Indonesia &#8211; was originally scheduled for implementation in late December.<\/p>\n<p>With EU member states backing the delay and Parliament widely expected to approve it, traders anticipate fewer supply bottlenecks ahead. The postponement should allow uninterrupted imports of cocoa and other agricultural commodities from major producing regions.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>West Africa Crop Outlook Improves<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Expectations of strong upcoming harvests in West Africa, the world\u2019s dominant cocoa-producing region, are further weighing on prices.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ivory Coast farmers<\/strong> report healthy cocoa trees and favourable drying conditions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ghana growers<\/strong> note rapid pod development thanks to supportive weather.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Mondelez added to the optimism, highlighting that recent pod counts across West Africa are 7% above the five-year average and \u201cmaterially higher\u201d than last season. With Ivory Coast\u2019s main crop harvest just getting underway, farmers remain upbeat about both volume and quality.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Additional Downside Forces: Tariff Relief &amp; Soft Demand<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Recent US policy changes are adding more pressure. The Trump administration removed planned 10% reciprocal tariffs on commodities not produced domestically\u2014including cocoa\u2014reducing cost pressures for US buyers.<\/p>\n<p>Demand indicators, however, paint a weaker picture:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Hershey<\/strong> described Halloween chocolate sales as \u201cdisappointing,\u201d noteworthy given the season accounts for nearly 18% of US annual candy sales.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Asia cocoa grindings<\/strong> dropped 17% year-on-year in Q3, the lowest for the quarter in nine years.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Europe\u2019s grindings<\/strong> fell 4.8%, a decade low.<\/li>\n<li><strong>North America<\/strong> posted a 3.2% increase, though analysts note this was distorted by new reporting participants.<\/li>\n<li>Chocolate candy sales across North America plunged more than 21% over the 13 weeks ending Sept. 7, according to Circana.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\u00a0<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Supply Tightness Still Present in Some Areas<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Despite improving global supply prospects, there are pockets of tightness:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ivory Coast port arrivals<\/strong> since the start of the season (Oct 1\u2013Nov 23) are down 3.7% year-on-year.<\/li>\n<li><strong>ICE-monitored inventories<\/strong> in US ports have fallen to an eight-month low.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nigeria<\/strong>, the world\u2019s fifth-largest producer, expects its 2025\/26 output to drop 11% due to weaker harvest conditions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\u00a0<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global Balances Turning, but Stocks Still Historically Low<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently updated its outlook:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For <strong>2023\/24<\/strong>, the global cocoa deficit is estimated at <strong>-494,000 MT<\/strong>, the largest shortfall in more than six decades.<\/li>\n<li>Production fell 13.1% last season, pushing the global stocks-to-grindings ratio to a 46-year low.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2024\/25<\/strong>, however, is expected to swing into a <strong>142,000 MT surplus<\/strong>, the first surplus in four years, with production forecast to rise nearly 8%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\u00a0<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-size-18\"><strong>Take a view Cocoa and other agricultural commodity Futures now. <a href=\"https:\/\/accountopening.phillipnova.com.sg\/?aeCode=pdsgzfMCU0MPCWvitC0Ns36GP9QK6C&amp;source=FuturesPosts&amp;utm_source=Market%20Trends&amp;utm_medium=Articles&amp;utm_campaign=Futures&amp;utm_content=PFSG\">Open an account now!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"font-size-18\">Or take a view via plantation stocks or commodity CFDs now!\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"font-size-18\"><strong data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2631\">\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"font-size-18\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div 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