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Phillip Nova高级投资分析师林知霖先生
Over the last few days, we looked at the Trump effect on crude oil, stocks, indices and cryptocurrency. Today, we will take a closer look at how Trump’s policies could potentially impact currencies.
What we have observed so far
The MSCI EM currencies index fell by -2.7% since the election up till 13 Jan 2025. Similarly, the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) lost 2.47% against the dollar due to tariff risks and a widening yield gap. The Canadian dollar (CAD) has also weakened against the greenback by 3.86%.
It did not stop there. We also observed many other major currencies slumping against the Dollar, mainly because their respective central banks are expected to have a deeper easing cycle than the Federal Reserve. Currencies like the Swiss Franc fell by 4.81%, the Euro tumbled by 4.77%, the British Pound dived by 5.57%, the Aussie dollar slipped 5.48%, and rounding up this list was the NZD which fell by the largest margins at 5.69%.
Recent developments
The Dollar was up against most peers after Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on Colombia as President Gustavo Petro refused to allow deportation flights from the US to land in his country.
The greenback then pared gains after the White House released a follow up statement that the US will hold off on emergency tariffs after Colombia “agreed to all of Trump’s terms”.
In midst of this uncertainty, safe haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (+0.47%) and Japanese Yen (+0.87% ) notched higher prices. This could very well be a possible sign of things to come amid Trump tariff volatility during his regime. We could see increased volatility in emerging market forex pairs, which could lead to capital flows into safe-haven pairs.
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