AI concerns fade into the background again

An emerging solution to the shutdown in the US is causing prices to rise again. However, analysts believe that the DAX is not yet ready to break out of its sideways trend, but will do so in the medium term.

Concerns about an AI bubble grew in November. Now, at least for the time being, confidence is returning. “In the US, an initial breakthrough in the budget dispute appears to have been achieved,” reports Ralf Umlauf of Helaba. However, he also warns that the decisive votes in the Senate and House of Representatives are still pending. In addition, funding for federal agencies will only be decided until the end of January. “The issue of US finances could therefore soon be back on the agenda.”

There is good news for the German automotive industry: China has lifted its export ban on chips from Dutch manufacturer Nexperia. “This provides relief for the automotive industry, which has been affected by massive supply bottlenecks,” reports Rolf Schäffer from LBBW.

On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 23,920 points after falling below 23,500 points on Friday, while the Stoxx Europe 600 stood at 565 points. The US stock markets had stemmed their losses at the close of trading on Friday and closed more or less unchanged. However, the Nasdaq lost more than 3 percent over the week. Prices for gold and Bitcoin have risen again recently. An ounce of gold is currently trading at $4,074, while Bitcoin is trading at $106,059 – after briefly falling below $100,000.

DekaBank: DAX soon to reach 27,000 points

According to Ulrich Kater of DekaBank, all key figures for the reporting season in Germany have been convincing so far – apart from “a special effect at a major car manufacturer.” Nevertheless, the DAX has been trending sideways since May, while many major stock indices in the US, Japan, and Asia have recently been hitting new record highs on a regular basis. “The reasons for this are the German government’s lack of economic reform activity and the low proportion of companies in the DAX that are benefiting from AI,” says Kater. Currently, there are simply more exciting alternatives for international investors.

However, he considers the medium and long-term outlook for German equities to be positive, so he advises buying during periods of weakness. “Looking ahead, the German government’s investment programs and, if necessary, structural reforms should provide support.” The bank sees the DAX at 27,000 points in six months. 

Commerzbank “cautiously optimistic” for 2026

Jörg Krämer from Commerzbank currently considers the DAX to be highly valued, as companies have not increased their profits. However, he is cautiously optimistic for 2026. He expects companies to achieve slightly higher profits in the coming year due to the improved economic situation. “In addition, the sharp cuts in US key interest rates that we expect are likely to have a positive impact on the DAX,” he adds. Furthermore, trade conflicts are likely to cause less uncertainty in 2026 than in 2025, as Trump has already reached agreements with many countries.

“Testing the support zone is nothing unusual”

According to technical analyst Christoph Geyer, the price setback was more relevant for traders than for long-term investors. “Testing the support zone is nothing unusual in such a sideways trend,” he explains. Meanwhile, the indicators are in oversold territory, which should support holding the zone. In addition, there was an intraday shift in sentiment on the US market on Friday, which could also support the German market if confirmed today, Monday. “So the signs are quite good for a positive start to the week.”

Flood of DAX figures

Due to the shutdown, it is still unclear whether US economic data such as the US consumer prices for October, which are actually due this week, will be published. However, there are clearly many figures coming from companies in this country. Among others, Munich Re (DE0008430026), Porsche Automobil Holding (DE000PAH0038), RWE (DE0007037129), Eon (DE000ENAG999), Infineon (DE0006231004), Bayer (DE000BAY0017), Deutsche Telekom (DE0005557508), Siemens (DE0007236101), Siemens Energy (DE000ENER6Y0) and Allianz (DE0008404005).  

Important economic and business data

Friday, 14 November

3:00 a.m. China: Retail sales/industrial production in October. Domestic demand is likely to have remained weak in October, according to Commerzbank. As a result, the rise in retail sales is likely to have slowed further. On the other hand, exports are likely to have increased again despite the trade conflict with the US, which is likely to have supported industrial production.