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EN 
Oil markets continued to retreat this week as investors grew increasingly confident that crude supplies from the Middle East will remain largely uninterrupted. With tanker traffic gradually resuming through the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic efforts helping to ease tensions between Iran and its regional counterparts, much of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices in recent months is now being unwound.
Both Brent and WTI crude have corrected sharply from their May highs, with prices falling more than 30% as fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies diminish. Markets are also beginning to factor in the possibility of additional Iranian crude returning to international markets should negotiations continue to progress.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, handling a significant portion of global oil exports. Recent signs of improving tanker movement through the region have reassured traders that supply flows are stabilising, shifting market focus away from geopolitical headlines and back towards underlying demand and supply fundamentals.
As of 10:20 a.m. Singapore time, WTI crude futures traded at US$72.79 per barrel, down 0.55%, while Brent crude futures eased 0.51% to US$76.41 per barrel.
From a technical standpoint, crude prices have now fallen below their 200-day moving average, a widely watched indicator that may signal weakening momentum and encourage further downside pressure. The break below this key level suggests that bearish sentiment could persist if supply conditions continue to improve.
That said, a sustained return towards the US$60-per-barrel region may still be some distance away. Investors will likely require stronger evidence that tanker traffic through Hormuz has fully normalised and that oil flows remain uninterrupted over an extended period before pricing crude significantly lower.
What Could Investors Watch Next?
- Tanker traffic and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Progress of ceasefire negotiations and regional diplomatic efforts.
- Potential increases in Iranian crude exports.
- Global oil demand trends amid slowing economic growth concerns.
- OPEC+ production decisions and supply guidance.
While geopolitical risks have not disappeared entirely, the market’s attention has shifted from worst-case supply disruption scenarios towards improving energy flows and stabilising trade routes. Unless fresh tensions emerge, crude prices may continue to face pressure as the remaining geopolitical premium gradually fades.
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