OCBC: Record Profits, But Is the Pullback a Buying Opportunity?

OCBC (SGX: O39) had a strong first half of 2026, reporting a record group net profit of S$2.2 billion in the second quarter, up 22% year-on-year and ahead of analysts’ expectations of S$1.93 billion.

Total income also climbed 18% to a record S$4.17 billion, supported by stronger fee, trading and insurance income, which more than offset softer interest income.

Investor sentiment was initially positive. By 28 August, OCBC shares had risen 56.73% year-to-date to S$31.11.

However, the rally has since lost some momentum. On 6 October, Citigroup downgraded the stock to Sell with a target price of S$27.50, citing expectations of flat year-on-year earnings growth in the third quarter and concerns over its capital position.

Profit-taking subsequently pulled OCBC shares down to S$28.11 as at 3 November, although the stock remained up 41.61% year-to-date.

With OCBC scheduled to report its third-quarter results on 6 November, the question is whether the recent pullback presents an opportunity or signals that expectations have run ahead of fundamentals.

1. Valuation: Is OCBC Getting Expensive?

OCBC’s trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 16.83x as at 3 November 2026.

Compared with its local peers, OCBC trades at a premium:

• OCBC: 16.84x

• DBS: 12.23x

• UOB: 7.36x

Its price-to-book (P/B) ratio, another commonly used valuation measure for banks, stood at approximately 2.3x, compared with 2.91x for DBS and 1.2x for UOB.

This places OCBC between its two peers in terms of book valuation. While its valuation reflects improved profitability and wealth management momentum, investors are paying more for each dollar of earnings than they are for DBS or UOB.

For income investors, OCBC’s trailing dividend yield was approximately 3.0%, below DBS at 4.3% and UOB at 3.9%. Its second-quarter dividend payout ratio was 47.7%, broadly in line with management’s policy of distributing around 50% of ordinary profit.

2. Margins: Wealth Management Helps Offset Softer Interest Income

One of the more encouraging developments was OCBC’s net profit margin, which improved to 55.75% in Q2 2026 from 53.42% a year earlier.

Its cost-to-income ratio (CIR) also improved to 37.8%, down from 39.3% in Q1 2026 and 38.7% in Q2 2025. A lower CIR generally indicates better operating efficiency.

However, the source of earnings growth deserves closer attention.

OCBC’s non-interest income was the main contributor to its latest profit growth, supported by stronger wealth management fees and trading income. Meanwhile, net interest margin came under pressure as interest rates fell, reducing the contribution from lending activities.

This raises an important question: can wealth management and other fee-generating businesses continue to support earnings if interest income remains under pressure?

3. Returns: Profit Growth Does Not Tell the Whole Story

OCBC’s return on equity (ROE) stood at 11.85% on a trailing twelve-month basis for the period ending Q2 2026, while return on assets (ROA) was 1.10%.

Both measures have edged lower over the past four quarters, despite the bank reporting record quarterly profits.

ROE measures how effectively a company generates profits from shareholders’ equity, while ROA looks at how efficiently it uses its assets to generate earnings.

The gradual decline suggests that investors should look beyond headline profit growth and examine whether OCBC is becoming more efficient at generating returns from its expanding balance sheet.

4. Growth: What Is Driving the Earnings Momentum?

OCBC’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) grew 22.8% year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.97% in Q1.

The improvement was largely driven by non-interest income, particularly wealth management-related fees, rather than traditional lending activities.

For the first half of 2026, group net profit rose 13% to a record S$4.19 billion, while total income increased 11% to S$8.00 billion.

The distinction matters. Strong earnings growth supported by wealth management and fee income may help diversify the bank’s revenue base. However, investors will want to see whether this momentum can be sustained, particularly as lower interest rates weigh on lending margins.

5. Financial Health: Capital and Asset Quality Under Watch

Two indicators are worth monitoring when assessing a bank’s financial strength: its capital buffer and the quality of its loans.

OCBC’s common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio is a measure of its ability to absorb financial losses using its highest-quality capital. A stronger capital buffer provides resilience, although holding excess capital may also affect how efficiently the bank deploys its resources.

Another important measure is the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, which indicates the proportion of loans at risk of not being repaid.

Based on Q2 2026 figures:

• OCBC: NPL ratio of 0.9%; NIM of 1.73%

• DBS: NPL ratio of 1.0%; NIM of 1.87%

• UOB: NPL ratio of 1.6%; NIM of 1.74%

OCBC had the lowest NPL ratio among the three banks, suggesting relatively resilient asset quality. DBS, meanwhile, recorded the highest net interest margin.

OCBC’s CASA ratio, which measures the proportion of deposits held in lower-cost current and savings accounts, stood at approximately 50% in Q2 2026. This was below UOB’s 55% and DBS’s 52%, highlighting the competitive nature of deposit gathering among Singapore’s local banks.

6. What to Watch in the Next Results

OCBC’s Q3 2026 results, scheduled for 6 November, will offer a fresh look at whether its earnings momentum is holding up.

Investors may want to focus on:

• Revenue growth: Can OCBC sustain the higher income levels recorded in Q2?

• Wealth management: Will fee income continue to support earnings?

• Net interest margin: How much further pressure will lower interest rates place on lending income?

• Asset quality: Will the NPL ratio remain relatively stable?

• Capital position: Will OCBC maintain a comfortable CET1 buffer while deploying capital efficiently?