CN 
EN 
Phillip Nova高级投资分析师林知霖先生
“This is different in the sense that these companies, the companies that are so highly valued, actually have earnings and stuff like that” – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
AI Bubble?
- 从 Big Tech earnings, 2026 CAPEX is expected to be substantially higher than 25’.
- OpenAI committed to spending around $1.4T on AI infrastructure, despite remaining unprofitable.
- Bottlenecks: Electricity, Time for data centre build, GPUs becoming obsolete.
- Key question is whether there is enough future demand from end-users for companies like OpenAI to justify the huge investments being pumped into the industry (ROI?)
Circular financing/Vendor financing risks.
- The industry has seen a rise in circular financing– essentially referring to where Nvidia invests money into OpenAI for OpenAI to purchase their chips.
- The market is concerned about this as circular/vendor financing was prevalent leading up to the Dot-com bubble, with companies like Nortel Networks even offering up their shares as financing for customers.
- Opinion: From Nvidia’s perspective, this move makes sense business-wise as they are essentially investing into the ecosystem. OpenAI’s success will result in Nvidia’s success. They are essentially incubating a future customer.
Comparison with Dot-Com Bubble
As we saw in the Dot-com bubble, markets can still crash even if technology turns out beneficial like the internet.
However there are key distinctions between back then and now:
1. Strong financials backing valuations, spending backed mostly by cash, not like debt-heavy Telco providers
2. Different backdrops– Fraud accelerated bubble bursting, with companies like Worldcom found to be cooking their books; also we saw rising rates heading into 00s.
After the dot-com bubble, there was an overcapacity in Telcos, which resulted in lower connectivity charges which made high-speed internet access affordable for everyone. We could see the same this time round.
The ultimate winners were companies which came up with the best business model to monetize the internet, including Ebay’s auction system, Amazon’s e-commerce, airline booking platforms, and Google’s search engine and advertising.
Opportunities: TOP PERFORMERS IN PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX (SOX)
Trade AI related and other US stocks on Phillip Nova 2.0 now! 立即点击开户
在 NOVA 交易 CFDs、ETF、外汇、期货、期权、贵金属和股票
NOVA 交易功能
- 接入超过 20 个全球交易所
从 20 多个全球交易所的 200 多个全球期货中捕捉机遇 - 全球股票的交易市场
覆盖新加坡、美国、中国、香港、马来西亚及日本市场，提供超过 11,000 只股票及 ETF。 - 由 TradingView 提供图表功能
查看实时图表，并使用超过 100 种技术指标。 - 真正的多资产交易体验
通过 NOVA 单一账本交易 CFDs、ETF、外汇、期货、期权、贵金属和股票。 - 美元及新元股票融资利率低至 4.5% p.a.
- 美股碎股低至 1 美元起
以低至 1 美元名义金额开始投资美股碎股，每笔订单佣金为 0.38 美元。
