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作者：Phillip Nova 销售总监 Eric Lee
The trajectory of WTI Crude Oil since 2009 has been defined by extreme volatility, characterized by distinct periods of consolidation followed by violent market corrections. The attached monthly chart highlights three major technical phases, revealing a recurring pattern of “wedge” formations leading to significant price capitulations.
Phase 1: The 2014 Collapse (-$80 Move)
Following the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, oil prices entered a period of consolidation between 2011 and 2014. The chart highlights a narrowing formation (indicated by the first set of orange trendlines), where volatility compressed as the market decided on a direction.
In mid-2014, this support broke, leading to a massive capitulation. As annotated on the chart, this breakdown resulted in a -$80 decline, dragging prices from over $100/barrel down to the $26 range by early 2016.
Phase 2: The Rising Wedge and the Negative Oil Crash (-$105 Move)
From the 2016 lows, the market structured itself into a Rising Wedge pattern (the second set of orange lines). In technical analysis, rising wedges are often bearish reversal patterns, indicating weakening buying momentum despite rising prices.
This pattern resolved historically in 2020. Triggered by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and a demand shock, price broke the lower trendline of the wedge. The result was a catastrophic -$105 drop, which briefly pushed WTI futures into negative territory (approx. -$40) for the first time in history.
Phase 3: The Post-Pandemic Triangle and Critical Support (2022–Present)
Following the V-shaped recovery and the surge to roughly $130 in 2022 (likely driven by geopolitical tensions and post-COVID demand), the market has entered a new consolidation phase.
The current technical structure resembles a large Descending Triangle:
- Resistance: A downward-sloping trendline connecting the lower highs since 2022.
- Support: A crucial horizontal floor annotated as “Support @ $55”.
Currently, as of December 2025, WTI is trading at $56.23, hovering dangerously close to this critical support level.
Conclusion: A Decisive Moment
The chart suggests the market is at an inflection point. The previous two major consolidations (2014 and 2020) resolved in massive downward volatility. With the price currently testing the $55 support, technical analysis suggests that holding this level is vital for bulls. A failure to hold $55 could trigger a breakdown similar to the historical drops of -$80 and -$105 highlighted in the previous cycles.
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