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Phillip Nova高级投资分析师林知霖先生
It’s about 6pm on 6 November 2024 in Singapore and we see Trump having attained 267 Electoral College votes. He just needs three more to clinch victory. Despite putting on a good fight, Kamala Harris is currently trailing him with just 224 Electoral College votes. It looks like a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will return as the 47日 President of The United States of America.
The key to Trump’s reappointment would be the victory achieved in key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Congratulatory messages for Trump have already begun pouring in from foreign leaders including Australia, France, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Israel and Australia.
Market Reaction
As the votes in the various states were being tallied, the markets started to react according to a probable Trump return.
- The S&P 500 jumped 1.8% and the Russell 2000 has since gained a whopping 6%.
- The USD has rose to the highest level since July. Bitcoin rose 6.85% to hit a new all-time high of $75,000. Dogecoin’s surge exceeded 20%.
- The Nikkei 225 also gained 2.25%, while the Yen weakened wit the USDJPY nearing 154.
- COMEX Copper is down alongside most metals like Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. SGX Iron Ore down over 2%.
- Hang Seng slumps by -2.7% while CSI 300 is down by -0.45%.
A Recap on Sectors and Stocks That Could Benefit
- Sector ETFs: Financials & Energy under Trump, even Bitcoin/Ethereum-related ETFs due to Trump’s pro-crypto stance
- Oil Stocks: Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, Devon Energy, EQT, and Chevron
- 卫生保健: another heavily regulated sector that may face easier regulation under Trump, Health insurers like UnitedHealth, Humana, and CVS Health.
- Banks: Bank of America, Goldman, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and JPmorgan.
- 股票 like Trump Media & Technology Group, Gunmaker Smith & Wesson, prison operator GEO Group, and Conservative video-sharing platform Rumble Inc are expected to benefit from a possible Trump second term.
- Defence companies like Lockheed Martin 和 雷神科技 may also benefit if Donald Trump is re-elected.
- Small Caps thanks to lower tax rates and Trump’s protectionist policies.
- Crypto stocks and ETFs: Coinbase Global Inc, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms
Sectors and Stocks That Could Face Headwinds by Trump’s Policies
- On the downside, Chinese equities and semiconductors with exposure to China (Marvell, Lam Research, KLA) could see headwinds from a Trump victory due to the potential for additional tariffs on Chinese-made goods and export restrictions.
- Other companies exposed to China include Air Products and Chemicals Inc, Celanese Corp, Agilent Technologies, and Jabil Inc
- Renewable energy: Invesco Solar ETF, stocks like Nextera, Rivian, and First Solar could fall under Trump
- Tariff-sensitive stocks: Lululemon, Gap, and Ulta Beauty could slump if Trump gets elected, with Nike sourcing a chunk of their footwear from China, and Lululemon from Vietnam
- EVs: Trump’s claim that he will reverse Biden’s EV policy means EVs like Rivian and Lucid may be under pressure. But Tesla is in a unique position to benefit from both parties, given Musk’s vocal support for Trump
- EV charging network operators: ChargePoint, Beam Global, and Blink Charging
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