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Gold Consolidates Near the US$4,300 Level
Gold futures extended their strong performance into December 2025, with COMEX gold futures comfortably consolidating around the US$4,300 mark. Prices remain underpinned by a softer U.S. dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields.
Bullish Consensus Anchored by Macro Fundamentals
All future price projections continue to place gold within a bullish consensus, supported by long-term structural fundamentals. Markets are broadly pricing in further Federal Reserve easing and persistent macroeconomic risks. Short-term projections suggest gold futures remain confined near multi-year highs, trading in a range-bound consolidation between US$4,200 and US$4,400. While bearish scenarios—such as a reversal in Fed easing expectations or a stronger U.S. dollar—could trigger modest pullbacks, even downside projections generally keep gold prices above pre-rally levels.
Technical Structure Remains Firmly Upward
From a technical perspective, gold futures continue to trade within a well-defined bullish structure, characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows on both daily and weekly charts. A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the August lows to the record high of US$4,398 per ounce shows that COMEX gold futures corrected close to the 50% retracement level. Since then, prices have rebounded multiple times but have yet to decisively break above the previous record high.
Key Support Levels and Momentum Signals
Gold’s advance into new price territory has been accompanied by intermittent consolidation. Recent pullbacks have found interim support near the US$4,200–US$4,250 zone. Prices remain comfortably above key moving averages, with the 50-day moving average at around US$4,164 per ounce acting as dynamic support on dips. Momentum indicators such as the RSI remain elevated but not in extreme overbought territory, suggesting strength without immediate exhaustion.
Consolidation Seen as Healthy Pause
In the near term, any consolidation or pullback toward previous breakout zones is likely to be viewed as a healthy pause rather than a trend reversal. A sustained hold above major psychological levels keeps the upside bias intact, while a decisive break below short-term support would be required to signal larger corrective risks.
Bigger Picture: Structural Bull Market Intact
Gold futures remain in a structurally bullish phase, driven by accommodative monetary expectations, sustained demand from global central banks, and persistent macro uncertainties. While consolidation is normal after strong gains—nearly 64% year-to-date—the broader trend continues to point toward underlying strength as markets navigate evolving economic data and policy signals.
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