As expected, the Fed announced a 75bps rate hike, while the Nasdaq had its best day since November 2020. Growth and cyclical sectors such as Tech and Communication Services led shares higher. Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted that it could slow its hiking campaign at some point. He believes that the economy is softening rather than entering a recession, pointing to a strong labour market alongside softer spending and production. He did not rule out another 75bps rate hike in the September meeting but stated that it will “depend on the data we get between now and then.”
With declines in broad commodity prices and softer consumer demand, we expect inflation to peak and for the July and August CPI reports to show signs of inflation moderation. Growth prospects appear bleak, as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model estimates GDP to be -1.2% for Q2.
Taking into consideration a slowing economy, cooling inflation, and the willingness of the Fed to slow rate hikes, it is possible that the Fed pivots to a less hawkish stance as more data is released. The market rally today and the fall in the VIX index (-5.35%) points to an improved investor sentiment. In addition, a less aggressive Fed could lead to a weaker dollar which may boost corporate earnings.
Under the assumption that the Fed slows its rate hikes or pauses it, and provided the economy does not slip into a recession, we believe growth and cyclical sectors of the market could outperform amidst inflation and interest rate normalization. In this scenario, large cap and reasonably valued growth stocks that stand out are (undervalued tech stocks compared to historical premiums):
Oracle $75.87 (-13.69% YTD)
Adobe $392.78 (-30.40% YTD)
Cognizant $70.30 (-21.51% YTD)
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