By Danish Lim, Investment Analyst, Phillip Nova
After a strong rally in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices in 2022, demand concerns from major importers China and India have led to a decline of around -6.13% in CPO spot prices for the month of January. CPO is primarily used for cooking and in the production of processed food. Its derivatives are used in nearly 50% of the packaged products– ranging from food to toiletries.
We remain bullish on CPO amidst strong demand and seasonally lower CPO production in Q1. Weak exports and weak production weighed on Malaysian Palm Oil Futures, which sank by around -10.81% in January. Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed that palm oil exports dropped by around 23% in January as major importers India and China reduced imports. At the same time, production plunged by 14.73% to around 1.38M tonnes due to seasonal factors.
On the Indonesian front, effective January 1, 2023, the government tightened its export policy for palm oil to ensure domestic supply is sufficient to meet peak demand season during Ramadan as production is expected to be seasonally weaker in Q1 this year. We believe it is unlikely the Indonesian government adjusts their palm oil export policy before the Ramadan period. We think this will decrease CPO supply to the market, thereby keeping CPO prices higher.
In our view, we expect demand to ramp up in the coming months as importers stock up on palm oil ahead of Ramadan on March 22. China should also see higher demand as it proceeds to fully reopen its economy following years of Covid lockdowns. Additionally, Indonesia’s B35 biofuel mandate which involves increasing the use of palm oil in biodiesel to a 35% blend should support higher palm oil prices in the near-term by squeezing palm oil supplies that were already undercut by lower seasonal production. Thus, with higher demand and supply-side constraints, we expect Malaysian Palm Oil Futures to rally to around the 4100-4300 range by the end of Q1.
Investors looking to gain exposure to CPO can also look into plantation stocks listed in Malaysia as it is one of the world’s largest CPO producer and exporter.We favour companies with low debt and high FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches) yield, which measures how much palm oil is produced per hectare of land, with a higher number indicating a more efficient plantation company:
- IOI Corp Bhd (KLSE: 1961), RM 3.85(-4.94% YTD*)
- United Plantations Bhd (KLSE: 2089), RM 15.88, (+3.79% YTD*)
- Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLSE: 2445), RM22.10, (-1.16% YTD*)
- Sime Darby Plantation Bhd (KLSE: 5285) RM 4.37, (-6.02% YTD*)
- Genting Plantations Bhd (KLSE: 2291), RM 6.10, (-4.69% YTD*)
*Figures are accurate as of market close on 14 February 2023, data from Bloomberg.
References:
1) Malaysian Palm Oil Board Export Data
2) Malaysian Palm Oil Board Production Data
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