Will AI Continue to be a Key Driver for the Taiwan Market?

26 Mar 2024

By Danish Lim, Investment Analyst for Phillip Nova

The SGX FTSE Taiwan Index Futures, which tracks the FTSE Taiwan Index, provides exposure to around 119 Taiwanese large cap and mid cap stocks. Taiwanese markets have recently made new all-time highs, driven by the AI frenzy. In terms of total return, the underlying cash index is up by 8.02% YTD, beating the Nasdaq’s 7.27% YTD gain. A key characteristic of the index is its tech-heavy composition. Technology (71.68%) is by far the largest sector in the index. This is well above the S&P 500’s technology weightage of 29.8%.


Some of the largest companies in the index include foundry giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), smartphone chipmaker MediaTek, and apple supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn. Notably, TSMC has an outsized weightage of 43%, owing to its dominance of the foundry market- where it has around 58% of the industry’s market share. TSMC is a lynchpin of the global semiconductor industry, as it manufactures chips for some of the biggest companies in the world including Apple, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Sony.

Source: Bloomberg

 

From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart indicates that the FTSE Taiwan Index futures contract is approaching the significant psychological resistance level of 1,700. This contract has been in an upward trend since October 2022. Moreover, there was a false break of support around 1,410 – 1,420 in mid-October 2023, followed by a continuation of the uptrend. Several other important technical observations that support our positive outlook include:

– The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bullish territory around 53, suggesting that the contract may have more room for gains before reaching the overbought level of 70. As long as the RSI remains at or above 50, the upward momentum is likely to persist.
– A “Golden Cross” occurred in mid-January when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, which is generally seen as a bullish signal.


In conclusion, we maintain an optimistic view on the FTSE Taiwan Index futures contract and anticipate it to have moderate upside potential between the 161.8% and 138.2% extension levels before the end of 2024. The narrative surrounding AI continues to be relevant and is expected to be a significant long-term growth driver, despite concerns about a crowded market. We view any short-term weakness or pullback as an opportunity for entry.

 

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An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

  • ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
  • ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
  • An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

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