Will the Nikkei 225 Bullish Momentum Continue?

22 Apr 2024

By Danish Lim, Investment Analyst, Phillip Nova

The SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures contract, which closely tracks the benchmark Nikkei 225 index presents a potentially enticing opportunity for investors. In this article we will explore structural underpinnings and technical nuances that underscore the optimistic outlook for this futures contract, against the backdrop of a dynamic Japanese market landscape.

 

Structural Drivers Fuelling Growth

The Japanese stock market has demonstrated resilience, outperforming many of its developed market counterparts. Year-to-date, the contract has surged by 13.44%, eclipsing the S&P 500’s gains. Key structural drivers, including enhanced corporate profits, bolstered corporate governance, tax incentives via the Nippon Individual Saving Account (NISA) program, and robust inflation and wage growth, buoy the market’s momentum.

 

Technical Insights

Looking at the 4-hourly technical chart, we can see that the contract has broken below key psychological support at the 38.2% retracement level, approximately around 37,956 – 38,000. We expect to see a potential retracement above this level in a false breakout. Other technical observations to support this view include:

  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is currently in the oversold territory of below 30. Typically a buy signal is usually triggered when the indicator breaks past 30 from below.
  • Despite intervention risks, we think it’s worth noting that the BoJ views the USD/JPY rate of change as the key catalyst for intervention, rather than a specific exchange rate level.

 

Sectoral Dynamics and Growth Prospects

The Nikkei 225 Index boasts a significant exposure to the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) sector, positioning Japan favorably for AI-driven innovations. Furthermore, the resurgence of inflation and wage growth bodes well for the Consumer Goods sector, heralding a shift towards increased consumption and investment patterns.

 

Mitigating Risks

Despite inherent risks, including intervention concerns by the Bank of Japan, strategic risk management measures can mitigate potential downsides. Maintaining a stop loss slightly below the 50.0% retracement level serves as a prudent safeguard against adverse market movements.

 

In conclusion, the SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures contract presents a compelling avenue for investors seeking exposure to the robust Japanese equities market. While short-term fluctuations may persist, the overarching growth narrative remains intact. By leveraging structural drivers and astute technical analysis, investors can navigate market volatilities and capitalise on the promising trajectory of Japanese equities.


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An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

  • ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
  • ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
  • An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

CFD is available for trading on Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5).

Features of trading CFD:

  • Trade in both the bull and the bear markets
    The ability to enter a long and/or short position allow traders to take advantage of both rising and falling markets.
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  • No expiration date or risk of delivery
    Unlike futures which commonly have a fixed expiration date, CFD allows traders to perpetually hold the position(s). CFD is cash settled, no need to worry about the delivery of the underlying asset.

 

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