DAX Outlook: Record High Back In Sight

08 Oct 2025

Analysis courtesy of Eurex.

The traditionally weak month of September is over, and the DAX record high is back in sight. While official US data is still unavailable due to the shutdown, US quarterly reporting is getting underway. There is a lot of optimism here – thanks to the AI boom.

S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, Bitcoin – the record run continues. Although the DAX has not quite reached its all-time high from July, it is not far off. The prospect of further interest rate cuts in the US is providing tailwinds. In addition, the AI euphoria continues. The shutdown in the US, which has been in effect since last Wednesday, is largely being ignored. “There are no signs yet of an imminent agreement in the US budget dispute and an end to the shutdown. However, the impact on the financial markets remains limited,” notes Ulrich Wortberg of Helaba.

On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 24,383 points, up from 24,378 at the close of trading on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600 has already set a new record. On Wall Street, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rose to new all-time highs on Friday. Gold and Bitcoin also reached new highs, with gold at almost $3,934 and Bitcoin at $125,450.

Other regions also have attractive stock subsidiaries

According to Robert Halver of Baader Bank, AI should not be equated with the internet boom of the late 1990s. “Today, AI is based on highly profitable companies with strong fundamentals,” he explains. He adds that the business-friendly environment in the US and US monetary policy are also helpful. Furthermore, AI is transforming all industries and companies through automation, robotics, and chatbots, leading to greater productivity.

But it is not only US stocks that are interesting. “Other regions also have attractive stock subsidiaries,” Halver notes. In Europe, he expects to see the emergence of more and more national “defense champions” and the development of separate ecosystems for defense technology. “In addition, many European stocks are trading at a valuation discount to their US competitors,” he adds. And after about ten years of below-average performance, emerging markets are now emerging from the shadow of industrialized countries. Among other things, they are benefiting from falling US key interest rates, which have enabled them to cut their own key interest rates.

Valuations remain high

Markus Reinwand from Helaba points to seasonality: historically, the DAX and S&P 500 have achieved their lowest average performance from May through October. “From October to March, however, price gains have been above average,” he notes. The seasonal pattern therefore suggests rising prices in the coming months. However, the Helaba BEST indicator, which tracks valuation, sentiment, and technical factors, is currently in neutral territory. “Valuation remains the biggest drag,” explains Reinwand. It is still above fair value. “For the second part of the rally, we now need to see a significant improvement in corporate earnings prospects.”

AI boom leads to profit increase of over 10 percent

This week’s data calendar is sparse. Since October 1, “non-essential” federal agencies in the US have been closed. Official economic data is not being published, such as the eagerly awaited US labor market report. However, the US reporting season kicks off on Thursday with PepsiCo, as DekaBank notes. It expects third-quarter reports to exceed analysts’ forecasts. “This is particularly true for the US, where surprisingly strong economic growth and the AI boom should allow for a profit increase of a good 10 percent,” explains Ulrich Kater. With these positive surprises and expected corporate profit growth rates of over 10 percent in the US, Europe, and Germany in the coming year, the medium- and long-term outlook for the stock markets remains positive.

Important economic and financial data

Wednesday, October 8

8:00 a.m. Germany: Industrial production for August. Commerzbank expects a significant decline of 2 percent. This is supported by the figures already available from the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA).

8:00 p.m. USA: Minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting.

Thursday, October 9

Ottobock IPO: The prosthetics manufacturer has set the price range for its planned IPO and listing on the Prime Standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange at €62 to €66 per share.

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