Gold at US$4,400: Is the Next Breakout in Sight?

12 Aug 2026

Gold momentum is building as central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting Fed expectations keep bullion firmly in focus.

Gold Regains Momentum

Gold is back in the spotlight after climbing above US$4,400 per ounce, reaching a more than two-month high before easing slightly. The latest rally has been supported by renewed investment demand, softer expectations for near-term Fed tightening following weaker US jobs data, and continued geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

As of 9:45am Singapore Standard Time, COMEX Gold futures were trading at US$4,449.80 per ounce, up 0.19%.

Beyond the immediate macro backdrop, structural demand continues to provide support. Chinese gold investment demand strengthened significantly in the first half of 2026, with bar and coin demand rising 28.4% year-on-year, even as jewellery demand weakened. Meanwhile, continued gold purchases by central banks globally are providing an important foundation for bullion prices.

What’s Next for Gold?

Technically, Gold has staged a strong recovery after finding major psychological support around US$4,000.

Multiple higher lows were followed by a breakout above the downward-sloping trend line, suggesting that bullish momentum may be returning. The next major level to watch is the 100-day moving average around US$4,490.

A sustained break above the US$4,490–US$4,500 zone could open the way towards US$4,650–US$4,700, where the 200-day moving average aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the downside, US$4,300–US$4,350 represents an important near-term support zone. The broader bullish structure remains intact as long as Gold holds above US$4,000.

The Macro Catalyst: Fed, Inflation and Geopolitics

While the technical picture remains constructive, Gold may need a fresh macro catalyst to trigger its next significant move.

US inflation data will be closely watched. A softer-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen expectations for easier Fed policy, putting pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields — conditions that could support Gold and potentially help it break decisively above US$4,500.

But the outlook is far from straightforward.

Persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict, together with oil prices holding around the US$80–US$90 per barrel range, could keep inflationary pressures elevated. That could complicate the Federal Reserve’s easing path and increase the possibility of rates remaining higher for longer.

For Gold, this creates a key tug-of-war: strong structural demand and geopolitical risk on one side, versus higher-for-longer rates and inflation risks on the other.

Central Banks Remain a Key Pillar

One of the most important underlying themes for Gold remains central bank demand.

Even as short-term price movements react to interest rates, the US dollar and geopolitical developments, continued central bank accumulation provides longer-term support for bullion.

Combined with rising investment demand in major markets such as China, this could help keep Gold firmly on investors’ radar through the second half of 2026.

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