Crude Oil Rebounds. Will Prices Stay Elevated?

29 Jul 2026

Crude oil prices rebounded after a fresh round of military strikes reignited geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reminding investors that supply risks in the region remain far from resolved.

Brent crude climbed back above US$87 per barrel, recovering some of the sharp losses recorded over the previous three sessions. The move comes after one of the most volatile months for the oil market in recent years, with prices swinging between fears of escalating conflict and hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

Renewed conflict revives supply concerns

The latest rally followed reports of missile attacks targeting US military assets in Jordan and further military action involving US and Saudi forces against Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also claimed responsibility for attacks on several oil tankers, raising fresh concerns over the security of regional shipping routes.

Although global oil production has not experienced widespread disruption, investors remain focused on the possibility that continued hostilities could threaten supplies flowing through critical energy chokepoints.

Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk

One of the biggest concerns continues to be the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

Recent reports suggest negotiations over shipping arrangements through the strait have stalled, with Iran seeking greater control over navigation in the area. At the same time, attacks on commercial vessels have reinforced concerns over maritime security, prompting some shipping operators to remain cautious despite the absence of a full-scale blockade.

As long as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz persists, geopolitical risk is likely to remain embedded in oil prices.

Markets remain highly sensitive to headlines

Oil has experienced exceptionally large price swings throughout July. Prices briefly surged above US$100 per barrel as conflict intensified before retreating sharply when diplomatic efforts appeared to reduce immediate tensions.

This latest rebound highlights how quickly market sentiment can shift as investors react to geopolitical developments.

Beyond supply risks, rising energy prices are also attracting attention from central banks, as sustained increases in oil prices could complicate the fight against inflation. Investors will be closely monitoring upcoming monetary policy decisions for any signs that higher energy costs may influence the outlook for interest rates.

What investors should watch

According to Phillip Nova Senior Market Analyst Priyanka Sachdeva, continued geopolitical uncertainty could encourage investors to rebuild bullish positions in crude oil while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

Looking ahead, market participants will be closely monitoring diplomatic developments between the US and Iran, security conditions along key shipping routes, and any signs of supply disruption that could drive the next major move in oil prices.

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