In line with expectations, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 bps for the third straight time this year on 8/9/2022, bringing the OPR to 2.50% as of 20/9/2022. The OPR has increased by a total of 75bps from 1.75% at the start of 2022. We expect BNM to stay on its current path of policy tightening as local inflationary pressures persist (+4.4% YoY), albeit to a lesser extent than its global counterparts like the US. We maintain our view of another 25bps rate hike in November 2022.
In this interest rate up-cycle environment, we favour the banking sector as they profit from rising rates better than other sectors. As seen in the graph below, the Bursa Malaysia Financial Index (KLFIN) outperformed the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), having gained 5.17% YTD compared to a loss of -7.40% for KLCI.
An increase in the OPR should benefit banks by improving their Net Interest Margins (NIMs). NIM is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by banks on loans and the amount of interest paid out on deposits. Higher interest rates allow banks to charge more for lending, which could translate to wider NIMs for banks, where the interest they earn on loans is greater than the interest paid on deposits.
Thus, we favour banks that possess a high variable rate loan mix, as it will allow them to profit the most from rising interest rates. This is because variable loans are loans that have yet to fix their rates and are typically pegged to an underlying benchmark. On the other hand, a fixed rate loan is where the interest rate on the loan remains unchanged throughout its life. Hence, when interest rates rise, banks with a higher variable rate loan mix will likely generate higher interest income and outperform banks with a lower variable rate loan mix. Hence, looking through their financial statements, banks that stand out are:
- RHB Bank Bhd RM5.67 (+5.59% YTD)- Variable/Floating loan rate mix= 88.7%
- Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd RM2.64 (-12% YTD)- Variable/Floating loan rate mix= 91.6%
- Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd RM3.67 (+28.32% YTD)- Variable/Floating loan rate mix= 82.3%
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