Why Gold’s Structural Bull Market Remains Intact

14 Apr 2026

By Eric Lee, Sales Director, Phillip Nova

Over the past few years, gold has undergone a historic re-rating, climbing from a quiet consolidation to staggering highs near $5,600 in January 2026. While many retail investors focus on headlines, seasoned market participants look at the “engine room” of the gold market: the COMEX Commitment of Traders (COT) data.

A study of the last three years shows a consistent setup for gold’s uptrend: Commercials’ net long positions combined with low Open Interest.

Who are the “commercials”?

In the futures market, the “commercials” are the entities involved in the production, processing, or merchandising of the physical commodity – think large bullion banks, miners, and jewellery manufacturers. Unlike speculative hedge funds that chase momentum, Commercials are considered the “smart money” because they have the deepest knowledge of physical supply and demand. When they stop selling and start hedging on the long side, the market typically bottoms.

The Setup: Low Open Interest and Commercial Accumulation

As seen in the technical analysis of the weekly COMEX Gold chart, major legs of the uptrend were preceded by periods where Open Interest (the total number of outstanding contracts) reached multi-year lows. Low open interest indicates that speculative “froth” has been washed out of the market.

Historically, each time the commercials’ net positions moved toward a less-short or net-long posture during these low-interest periods, a new green “accumulation arrow” appeared on the price chart, sparking the next multi-hundred-dollar rally.

Resilience in the Face of Correction

Gold recently corrected from its $5,600 peak in early 2026 to a low near $4,100. While a $1,500 drop might seem alarming, the commercials continued to remain bullish. Their net positions have not collapsed; instead, they have used the correction to reset and maintain a strong defensive posture.

Securing the Future: The LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold ETF

For investors looking to align themselves with this long-term structural trend without the complexities of the futures market, a new institutional-grade option has arrived on the SGX.

The LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold ETF (SGX: GLS | GLU) offers a unique advantage: it is backed by physical gold bars held securely in Singapore vaults. Unlike “paper gold” which relies on counterparty promises, this ETF ensures that your investment is grounded in tangible assets stored in one of the world’s safest and most stable financial jurisdictions.

By holding gold in Singapore, investors bypass the geopolitical risks associated with Western storage hubs and benefit from the transparency of a locally listed, physically-backed vehicle.

LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold ETF (SGX: GLS | GLU) is available for trading on NOVA. The platform provides multi-asset trading access to over 11,000 CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals, and Stocks on a single ledger, and comes with an in-app AI market assistant called NOVA.I.

Enjoy charting powered by TradingView, trade effectively with an inbuilt market depth tool and experience our tight forex spreads. Focus only on trading with zero custodian and platform fees too.

To learn more about the NOVA platform and how to start trading this ETF, simply register your interest via my 1 to 1 coaching page here.

Eric Lee is a Sales Director with Phillip Nova. With expertise in Futures, Forex, Stocks, and Unit Trust, Eric makes an all-rounded advisor. Make informed trading decisions without spending time combing through endless information as Eric readily provides clients with trade alerts and insights via WhatsApp. Over his years of experience, Eric developed systematic strategies in trading and investing. Book a complimentary coaching session below to leverage on his expertise as he imparts his knowledge to enhance your trading journey.

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An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12^th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

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