Are we on the cusp of $4,000/oz for Gold?

01 Oct 2025

By Priyanka Sachdeva, Senior Market Analyst for Phillip Nova

Gold has had a strong run in recent weeks, hitting record highs as investors pile into safe-haven assets. While markets are busy debating whether $4,000/oz is the next cinematic climax, the sober reality is more measured. The biggest driver is still the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates steadily, pulling down bond yields and making gold more attractive compared to fixed income. Historically, “when yields go to sleep, gold wakes up.” Add in concerns about a slowing global economy and geopolitical risks, and bullion has had no shortage of reasons to shine.

 

ETF inflows and central bank buying have only added fuel. Global reserve managers continue to diversify away from the dollar, keeping a steady bid under gold. On the demand side, India’s imports have nearly doubled despite record prices, showing that seasonal and cultural buying remains intact. Meanwhile, gold miners and ETFs have drawn in strong fund flows, reflecting investor confidence that bullion still has a role to play in portfolios. As of 10:40 am Singapore Standard Time, Gold Comex futures trade at $3894 per ounce after marking a record high of $3899.20 per ounce.

 

But momentum is looking stretched. Technical signals show fragility, with sharp rallies often followed by quick reversals. That’s why, even as some market voices speculate on Bullion’s next move higher, I stand to differ. My near-term target has been $3,800-$3900, and pushing decisively beyond that would require a much bigger shock in the global macro picture. In other words, for gold to fly further, something has to break — whether it’s a deeper economic slowdown, a faster Fed pivot, or a geopolitical flare-up. For now, technicals point that the rally has lost immediate strength, and traders should be cautious about chasing breakouts until momentum re-aligns.

 

Gold is not just a trade, it’s becoming a long-term statement against uncertainty. And in that sense, the metal’s old reputation still holds true: “Gold is the mirror of our fears, but also the anchor of our trust.”

 

For the rest of 2025, I expect gold to consolidate at slightly lower levels, giving the market time to gather strength for the next leg up. That doesn’t mean the story is over — far from it. Central banks are still buying, investors are still hedging, and real yields are still falling. But instead of chasing every spike, investors would be wise to build positions patiently, use dips for accumulation, and stay disciplined.

 



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An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

  • ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
  • ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
  • An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

CFD is available for trading on Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5).

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