Cycles of Boom and Bust: A Technical Review of WTI Crude Oil (2009–2025)

22 Dec 2025

By Eric Lee, Sales Director, Phillip Nova

The trajectory of WTI Crude Oil since 2009 has been defined by extreme volatility, characterized by distinct periods of consolidation followed by violent market corrections. The attached monthly chart highlights three major technical phases, revealing a recurring pattern of “wedge” formations leading to significant price capitulations.

Phase 1: The 2014 Collapse (-$80 Move)

Following the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, oil prices entered a period of consolidation between 2011 and 2014. The chart highlights a narrowing formation (indicated by the first set of orange trendlines), where volatility compressed as the market decided on a direction.

In mid-2014, this support broke, leading to a massive capitulation. As annotated on the chart, this breakdown resulted in a -$80 decline, dragging prices from over $100/barrel down to the $26 range by early 2016.

Phase 2: The Rising Wedge and the Negative Oil Crash (-$105 Move)

From the 2016 lows, the market structured itself into a Rising Wedge pattern (the second set of orange lines). In technical analysis, rising wedges are often bearish reversal patterns, indicating weakening buying momentum despite rising prices.

This pattern resolved historically in 2020. Triggered by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and a demand shock, price broke the lower trendline of the wedge. The result was a catastrophic -$105 drop, which briefly pushed WTI futures into negative territory (approx. -$40) for the first time in history.

Phase 3: The Post-Pandemic Triangle and Critical Support (2022–Present)

Following the V-shaped recovery and the surge to roughly $130 in 2022 (likely driven by geopolitical tensions and post-COVID demand), the market has entered a new consolidation phase.

The current technical structure resembles a large Descending Triangle:

Resistance: A downward-sloping trendline connecting the lower highs since 2022.
Support: A crucial horizontal floor annotated as “Support @ $55”.

Currently, as of December 2025, WTI is trading at $56.23, hovering dangerously close to this critical support level.

Conclusion: A Decisive Moment

The chart suggests the market is at an inflection point. The previous two major consolidations (2014 and 2020) resolved in massive downward volatility. With the price currently testing the $55 support, technical analysis suggests that holding this level is vital for bulls. A failure to hold $55 could trigger a breakdown similar to the historical drops of -$80 and -$105 highlighted in the previous cycles.

Trade Smarter with Phillip Nova

Access the contract directly on the Phillip Nova trading platform—your one-stop hub for trading Stocks, ETFs, DLCs, Structured Warrants, Forex, and Futures. Powered by TradingView, our platform delivers seamless charting across desktop, tablet, or mobile. With over 100+ technical indicators, live price charts, and an advanced Market Depth Trading Tool, you’ll have everything you need to make confident, informed trades. Try it risk-free today here.

Get Started Now

Click here to open an account now
Try a free NOVA Demo Account
Try a free Phillip MT5 Demo Account
Sign up for a free coaching session with Eric Lee here.

Value-Added Service from Eric Lee

My clients benefited from my services including investment advisories in unit trust and stocks, investment insights based on my personal knowledge and experiences while navigating the markets for the past 20 years.

Periodically, I will be send out market analysis to my clients, as well as alerting them of support and resistance levels for the technical indicators which I am utilising on a chart. Click on the button at the bottom if you would like to arrange for a One-to-One Coaching session to learn more about trading futures, forex, stocks and more, and how you can benefit from the services I provide.

Eric Lee is a Sales Director with Phillip Nova. With expertise in Futures, Forex, Stocks, and Unit Trust, Eric makes an all-rounded advisor. Make informed trading decisions without spending time combing through endless information as Eric readily provides clients with trade alerts and insights via WhatsApp. Over his years of experience, Eric developed systematic strategies in trading and investing. Book a complimentary coaching session below to leverage on his expertise as he imparts his knowledge to enhance your trading journey.

Open an account now
Free NOVA Demo Account
Free Phillip MT5 Demo Account

*T&Cs apply, contact Eric below for more information.

Click here for a free coaching session with Eric

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12^th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

CFD is available for trading on Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5).

Features of trading CFD:

Trade in both the bull and the bear markets
The ability to enter a long and/or short position allow traders to take advantage of both rising and falling markets.
Smaller barrier to entry
Flexible and smaller contract sizes. This means that traders will be able to enter into a contract with a modest amount of capital.
No expiration date or risk of delivery
Unlike futures which commonly have a fixed expiration date, CFD allows traders to perpetually hold the position(s). CFD is cash settled, no need to worry about the delivery of the underlying asset.

Benefits of using Phillip MT5:

Trade at zero commission on a dynamic platform that offers low spreads. Integrated with Autochartist and Trading Central Indicators, and available on mobile, web and desktop app, you will never miss a trading opportunity with Phillip MT5.

Register for a FREE 30-day Phillip MetaTrader 5 Demo Account

More Market Trends