DAX Outlook: End of Hostilities Is Crucial

25 Mar 2026

Analysis courtesy of Eurex.

Oil prices are rising again, while (almost) everything else is falling: stock prices, bond prices—and even gold and silver. The “safe havens” are failing.

Hopes for a swift end to the war in Iran are fading. “The mullah regime in Tehran appears willing to do anything in its fight for survival, while the White House had underestimated its resistance and apparently has no Plan B,” notes Berndt Fernow of LBBW.

The conflict has recently escalated: On Saturday night, U.S. President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s energy facilities if the country did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran responded by threatening to completely close the vital strait. “Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is one thing; repairing destroyed production facilities, terminals, and refineries is another,” explains Fernow. The financial markets therefore expected a noticeable rise in inflation.

Gold price nears the $4,000 mark

A barrel of Brent crude is trading at $114 on Monday morning; before the outbreak of war, it was around $70. Stocks continue to fall: The DAX slipped below 22,000 points on Monday morning after closing at 22,380 points on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600 is also continuing its downward trend. U.S. markets closed with losses again on Friday.

The trend in precious metals is striking: a troy ounce of gold now costs just $4,200. At its all-time high in January, it was still $5,570. The price of silver has halved to its current level of $62 from its record high of nearly $122. The strong U.S. dollar and expectations of rising interest rates are making precious metals less attractive. Bitcoin has not continued its recent recovery and has slipped back below $68,000, also nearly half its record high.

“The global economy could still get off with a slap on the wrist”

“The longer the conflicts persist and the longer oil prices remain at significantly elevated levels, the more severe the dampening effects on the real economy will be,” notes Markus Reinwand of Helaba. In addition to price effects, supply chain disruptions could occur. However, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index does not yet show any abnormalities. The fluctuations in shipping stocks, which serve as leading indicators, have also been manageable so far. “So it is still possible that the global economy will get off with a slap on the wrist.” With the latest corrections, the markets have indeed priced in a more realistic scenario. However, according to Reinwand’s assessment, there hasn’t been much room for positive surprises yet. “At present, there is still no truly attractive entry opportunity.”

Failed to hold support levels

“Times are more turbulent than they have been in a long while,” comments technical analyst Christoph Geyer. The DAX has recently fallen sharply below the support zone that had held for months. The next support level it has now reached is not particularly robust. “A lasting improvement in the situation can only be expected once the fighting comes to an end.”

As for earnings season, second- and third-tier companies will be reporting their results for the fourth quarter of 2025 this week, including Salzgitter, Drägerwerk, Jenoptik, Hornbach, CTS Eventim, and Cewe.

Key Economic and Business Data

Wednesday, March 25

10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for March. Given the war in Iran and the sharp rise in energy prices, anything other than a significant decline in the ifo business climate—and particularly in business expectations—would be a major surprise, according to Commerzbank.

Thursday, March 26

8:00 a.m. Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Index for March. According to DekaBank, consumer sentiment will be shaped by developments in the Middle East. In response to growing fears of a loss of purchasing power, the GfK Consumer Climate Index for Germany is likely to decline.

Take a view on the European Markets with Phillip Nova now!

Trade Micro-DAX® and Micro-EURO STOXX 50® Futures at EUR1.50*. Learn more here.

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12^th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

CFD is available for trading on Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5).

Features of trading CFD:

Trade in both the bull and the bear markets
The ability to enter a long and/or short position allow traders to take advantage of both rising and falling markets.
Smaller barrier to entry
Flexible and smaller contract sizes. This means that traders will be able to enter into a contract with a modest amount of capital.
No expiration date or risk of delivery
Unlike futures which commonly have a fixed expiration date, CFD allows traders to perpetually hold the position(s). CFD is cash settled, no need to worry about the delivery of the underlying asset.

Benefits of using Phillip MT5:

Trade at zero commission on a dynamic platform that offers low spreads. Integrated with Autochartist and Trading Central Indicators, and available on mobile, web and desktop app, you will never miss a trading opportunity with Phillip MT5.

Register for a FREE 30-day Phillip MetaTrader 5 Demo Account

More Market Trends