Lunar New Year 2026: The “Capital Migration” Shaping Global Markets

11 Feb 2026

(Data as of 10 February 2026)

The 2026 Lunar New Year—the Year of the Fire Horse—is marked by an extended nine-day holiday (February 15–23). For investors, this period represents a “Capital Migration,” where liquidity shifts from traditional financial hubs into high-velocity consumer spending, luxury gifting, and digital entertainment.

1) The Reunion Meal: Haidilao (6862.HK, YTD Performance: +19.50%)

Hotpot remains the definitive “reunion meal,” making Haidilao the primary high-frequency play for the festive window.

The Opportunity: With the return of Zhang Yong as CEO, Haidilao is shifting focus back to aggressive growth and execution, fuelled by a successful expansion into “community dining” and pop-up locations at high-traffic hubs.
The Metric: Table turnover rates in Tier-1 cities have historically surged to 5.0x daily during the Lunar New Year. The +19.50% YTD gain reflects investor confidence in the brand’s ability to capture the peak of the “reunion economy” cash flow.

2) The Gifting Currency: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH, YTD Performance: +5.53%)

Moutai functions less like a beverage and more like a financial asset during the Spring Festival, serving as the gold standard for social currency and high-end gifting.

The Opportunity: Shares have climbed as wholesale prices for “Feitian” Moutai stabilized ahead of the peak banquet season.
The Metric: While its growth is more measured than the tech sector, Moutai’s high earnings stability makes it a “defensive growth” anchor for portfolios during the traditionally volatile Horse year.

3) The Digital Backbone: Alibaba Group (BABA), YTD Performance: +7.72%

Alibaba provides the logistical and financial “back-end” for the holiday, from digital red envelopes (Hongbao) to the massive surge in “New Year Goods” shopping.

The Opportunity: Alibaba is heating up the AI race by committing 3 billion yuan ($431 million) to attract users to its Qwen AI app during the holiday. This triples the spending promised by major rivals.
The Metric: BABA has seen a 7.66% price appreciation over the last month. The company is leveraging its AI-Cloud division to manage the heavy traffic of the “Spring Festival Shopping Gala,” offering incentives for dining, entertainment, and leisure starting February 6.

4) The Youth Digital Hub: Bilibili (9626.HK, YTD Performance: +20.38%)

Bilibili captures the “digital downtime” of the 9-day holiday, specifically among the high-spending Gen-Z and Millennial demographics.

The Opportunity: The company has achieved a landmark financial turnaround, reaching operating margins of 8% after years of losses. Its 2026 CNY anime content and “Most Beautiful Night” gala are key drivers for advertising revenue.
The Metric: Users currently spend an average of 112 minutes per day on the platform. The +20.38% YTD rally represents a fundamental re-rating of the stock from a growth play to a profitable entertainment giant.

Access The Chinese Market With ETFs

Apart from picking individual stocks, ETFs are an easier way for customers to gain access to the Chinese market via a basket of stocks. Here are some ETFs that you may be keen to add to your watchlist during this Lunar New Year holidays:

Global X China (HKEX: 2806, YTD + 3.96%)
KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (AMEX: KWEB, YTD -3.62%)
Invesco China Tech (AMEX: CQQQ, YTD: -0.44%)

Gain access to shares and ETFs from the Chinese, Hong Kong, US, Singapore and Malaysian markets from as low as 0.01%. Open an account now!

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A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12^th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

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