Venezuela — Geopolitics, Oil & Market-Moving Contract Winners

04 Jan 2026

Headlines Drive Attention, Contracts Drive Stock Performance
Venezuela remains central in the global energy narrative, backed by the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves and renewed U.S. commentary around rebuilding the country’s oil infrastructure. While geopolitical events can inject short-term volatility into oil benchmarks, the more durable upward trend is likely to concentrate in companies that secure the largest reconstruction contracts, especially if future revenues justify the heavy capital outlay required to restore infrastructure.
Another major catalyst to monitor will be U.S. legislation and bills supporting infrastructure financing, including subsidies, guarantees, or sanction exceptions tied to energy sector rebuilding.

Why Is This Market-Relevant
• Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector is capital-intensive — favoring global energy giants with execution scale, regulatory access, and project delivery capabilities.
• Valuation inflection points will likely track contract milestones — particularly shortlisting and award confirmations.
• Policy decisions may unlock capital flows — U.S. bills backing infrastructure costs could materially shift sentiment and de-risk deployment for energy firms.

Investor Signals to Watch
Contract Shortlists & Award Headlines → Expect initial sentiment-driven price spikes when companies are named.
Earnings & Guidance Disclosures → Look for steady multi-year stock climbs if revenues justify infrastructure rebuilding costs.
U.S. Infrastructure Support Bills Signed → Subsidies, tax incentives, or reconstruction funding approvals.
Oil Market Fundamentals → Brent/WTI levels, refinery demand for heavy crude, and energy sector beta.

Opportunities in Trading:

ETFs (Track commodity-linked sentiment):
GLD — Gold exposure, a geopolitical risk sentiment proxy
USO — U.S. Oil Fund ETF, tracking crude price movements

Stocks (Likely beneficiaries of contract concentration):
CVX (Chevron) — U.S. energy major with historical LatAm footprint
SLB (Schlumberger) — Energy infrastructure & oilfield services scale
COP (ConocoPhillips) — Capital capacity for major deployment
XOM (ExxonMobil) — Global execution strength & long-term infrastructure play

Remember – Markets won’t climb on reserves alone — they’ll climb on the companies rebuilding them. The biggest multi-year upside will likely be seen in contract-winning energy majors and oilfield infrastructure providers, especially when backed by enabling legislation.

Trade your energy view across multiple instruments.

✔ Oil Futures — hedge or take directional positions
✔ Energy & Oil Stocks (CVX, SLB, COP, XOM) — ride contract-driven momentum
✔ Commodity-linked ETFs (GLD, USO) — diversify or position for volatility
✔ Oil & Share CFDs — go long or short with leverage
✔ MT5 or Phillip Nova 2.0 — fast, flexible execution

Follow the contracts. Watch the policy. Trade the winners.
Go long or short on Oil Futures, Oil Stocks, Oil ETFs, and Oil CFDs with Phillip Nova now.

Want to take a view on Crude Oil Futures? Learn more now!

Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals, and Stocks with Phillip Nova 2.0

Features of trading on Phillip Nova 2.0

Gain Access to Over 20 Global Exchanges
Capture opportunities from over 200 global futures from over 20 global exchanges

Trade Opportunities in Global Stocks
Over 11,000 Stocks and ETFs across Singapore, US, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan markets.

Charting Powered by TradingView
View live charts and gain access to over 100 technical indicators

True Multi-Asset Trading
Trade CFDs, ETFs, Forex, Futures, Options, Precious Metals and Stocks on a single ledger on Phillip Nova 2.0

Free Phillip Nova Demo Account

Fast and Secure Online Account Opening

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12^th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

CFD is available for trading on Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5).

Features of trading CFD:

Trade in both the bull and the bear markets
The ability to enter a long and/or short position allow traders to take advantage of both rising and falling markets.
Smaller barrier to entry
Flexible and smaller contract sizes. This means that traders will be able to enter into a contract with a modest amount of capital.
No expiration date or risk of delivery
Unlike futures which commonly have a fixed expiration date, CFD allows traders to perpetually hold the position(s). CFD is cash settled, no need to worry about the delivery of the underlying asset.

Benefits of using Phillip MT5:

Trade at zero commission on a dynamic platform that offers low spreads. Integrated with Autochartist and Trading Central Indicators, and available on mobile, web and desktop app, you will never miss a trading opportunity with Phillip MT5.

Register for a FREE 30-day Phillip MetaTrader 5 Demo Account

More Market Trends

31 Dec 2025

Nikkei Slips on Final Session, Still Posts 26% Gain in 2025

Client Portal